Found 67 publications. Showing page 1 of 3:
Abstract Low-cost air quality sensors (LCS) are increasingly used to complement traditional air quality monitoring yet concerns about their accuracy and fitness-for-purpose persist. This scoping review investigates topics, methods, and technologies in the application of LCS networks in recent years that are gaining momentum, focusing on LCS networks (LCSN) operation, drone-based and mobile monitoring, data fusion/assimilation, and community engagement. We identify several key challenges remaining. A major limitation is the absence of unified performance metrics and cross-validation methods to compare different LCSN calibration and imputation techniques and meta-analyses. LCSN still face challenges in effectively sharing and interpreting data due to a lack of common protocols and standardized definitions, which can hinder collaboration and data integration across different systems. In mobile monitoring, LCS siting, orientation, and platform speed are challenges to data consistency of different LCS types and limit the transferability of static calibration models to mobile settings. For drone-based monitoring, rotor downwash, LCS placement, flight pattern, and environmental variability complicate accurate measurements. In integrating LCS data with air quality models or data assimilation, realistic uncertainty quantification, ideally at the individual measurement level, remains a major obstacle. Finally, citizen science initiatives often encounter motivational, technological, economic, societal, and regulatory barriers that hinder their scalability and long-term impact.
2025
Sex and Gender Dimensions in Hazard and Risk Assessment of Engineered Nanomaterials
The knowledge on hazards and risks connected to human exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is still very limited, despite several decades of research and regulatory efforts at the international level. In particular, sex/gender‐related responses to such exposure have not been clearly articulated so far in any of the existing guidance documents or regulatory relevant opinions provided to the parties involved in the risk assessment and risk management of ENMs. We aimed to demonstrate the relevance of the sex/gender dimension for the characterization of the risks and hazards associated with ENMs by analyzing existing scientific data on sex‐related differences in response to ENMs exposure. This was achieved by performing an extensive review of in vivo mammalian toxicity studies published in PubMed and Web of Science databases. Further analysis was performed only for data reported in publications that satisfied scientific quality criteria assessed using the GUIDEnano approach. Finally, we demonstrated the importance of the sex/gender dimension for safety testing of ENMs in the future and provided recommendations on how to include the sex/gender dimension in toxicity testing of ENMs to ensure precise, transparent, and reliable conclusions in the process of hazard and risk assessments. This article is categorized under: Toxicology and Regulatory Issues in Nanomedicine > Toxicology of Nanomaterials Toxicology and Regulatory Issues in Nanomedicine > Regulatory and Policy Issues in Nanomedicine
2025
2025
Biomass burning emission estimation in the MODIS era: State-of-the-art and future directions
Accurate estimates of biomass burning (BB) emissions are of great importance worldwide due to the impacts of these emissions on human health, ecosystems, air quality, and climate. Atmospheric modeling efforts to represent these impacts require BB emissions as a key input. This paper is presented by the Biomass Burning Uncertainty: Reactions, Emissions and Dynamics (BBURNED) activity of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry project and largely based on a workshop held in November 2023. The paper reviews 9 of the BB emissions datasets widely used by the atmospheric chemistry community, all of which rely heavily on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations of fires scheduled to be discontinued at the end of 2025. In this time of transition away from MODIS to new fire observations, such as those from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite instruments, we summarize the contemporary status of BB emissions estimation and provide recommendations on future developments. Development of global BB emissions datasets depends on vegetation datasets, emission factors, and assumptions of fire persistence and phase, all of which are highly uncertain with high degrees of variability and complexity and are continually evolving areas of research. As a result, BB emissions datasets can have differences on the order of factor 2–3, and no single dataset stands out as the best for all regions, species, and times. We summarize the methodologies and differences between BB emissions datasets. The workshop identified 5 key recommendations for future research directions for estimating BB emissions and quantifying the associated uncertainties: development and uptake of satellite burned area products from VIIRS and other instruments; mapping of fine scale heterogeneity in fuel type and condition; identification of spurious signal detections and information gaps in satellite fire radiative power products; regional modeling studies and comparison against existing datasets; and representation of the diurnal cycle and plume rise in BB emissions.
2025
Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2 for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK), derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models. Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on identifying essential questions which need to be answered to properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well-characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported under the UNFCCC in 2019, aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. For the uncertainties in NGHGIs, we used the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states following the IPCC Guidelines. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, like atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arises from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of uncertainty is that related to different system boundaries and emission categories (CO2 fossil) and the use of different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities (CO2 land). At the EU27 + UK level, the NGHGI (2019) fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production) account for 2624 Tg CO2 in 2014 while all the other seven bottom-up sources are consistent with the NGHGIs and report a mean of 2588 (± 463 Tg CO2). The inversion reports 2700 Tg CO2 (± 480 Tg CO2), which is well in line with the national inventories. Over 2011–2015, the CO2 land sources and sinks from NGHGI estimates report −90 Tg C yr−1 ± 30 Tg C yr−1 while all other BU approaches report a mean sink of −98 Tg C yr−1 (± 362 Tg of C from dynamic global vegetation models only). For the TD model ensemble results, we observe a much larger spread for regional inversions (i.e., mean of 253 Tg C yr−1 ± 400 Tg C yr−1). This concludes that (a) current independent approaches are consistent with NGHGIs and (b) their uncertainty is too large to allow a verification because of model differences and probably also because of the definition of “CO2 flux” obtained from different approaches. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4626578 (Petrescu et al., 2020a).
2021
2019
Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990–2017. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported to the UN climate convention UNFCCC secretariat in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGIs the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states (MSs) following the recommendations of the IPCC Guidelines. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model-specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g., anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011–2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr−1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1. The estimates of TD total inversions give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher-resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Coarser-resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4 yr−1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr−1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH–HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions, and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGIs and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr−1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011–2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1, respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr−1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr−1, respectively. The TD and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at the EU+UK scale and at the national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4590875 (Petrescu et al., 2020b)
2021
Adult neurotoxicity (ANT) and developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) assessments aim to understand the adverse effects and underlying mechanisms of toxicants on the human nervous system. In recent years, there has been an increasing focus on the so-called new approach methodologies (NAMs). The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), together with European and American regulatory agencies, promote the use of validated alternative test systems, but to date, guidelines for regulatory DNT and ANT assessment rely primarily on classical animal testing. Alternative methods include both non-animal approaches and test systems on non-vertebrates (e.g., nematodes) or non-mammals (e.g., fish). Therefore, this review summarizes the recent advances of NAMs focusing on ANT and DNT and highlights the potential and current critical issues for the full implementation of these methods in the future. The status of the DNT in vitro battery (DNT IVB) is also reviewed as a first step of NAMs for the assessment of neurotoxicity in the regulatory context. Critical issues such as (i) the need for test batteries and method integration (from in silico and in vitro to in vivo alternatives, e.g., zebrafish, C. elegans) requiring interdisciplinarity to manage complexity, (ii) interlaboratory transferability, and (iii) the urgent need for method validation are discussed.
2024
2021
2020
Bisphenol A (BPA), a synthetic chemical widely used in the production of polycarbonate plastic and epoxy resins, has been associated with a variety of adverse effects in humans including metabolic, immunological, reproductive, and neurodevelopmental effects, raising concern about its health impact. In the EU, it has been classified as toxic to reproduction and as an endocrine disruptor and was thus included in the candidate list of substances of very high concern (SVHC). On this basis, its use has been banned or restricted in some products. As a consequence, industries turned to bisphenol alternatives, such as bisphenol S (BPS) and bisphenol F (BPF), which are now found in various consumer products, as well as in human matrices at a global scale. However, due to their toxicity, these two bisphenols are in the process of being regulated. Other BPA alternatives, whose potential toxicity remains largely unknown due to a knowledge gap, have also started to be used in manufacturing processes. The gradual restriction of the use of BPA underscores the importance of understanding the potential risks associated with its alternatives to avoid regrettable substitutions. This review aims to summarize the current knowledge on the potential hazards related to BPA alternatives prioritized by European Regulatory Agencies based on their regulatory relevance and selected to be studied under the European Partnership for the Assessment of Risks from Chemicals (PARC): BPE, BPAP, BPP, BPZ, BPS-MAE, and TCBPA. The focus is on data related to toxicokinetic, endocrine disruption, immunotoxicity, developmental neurotoxicity, and genotoxicity/carcinogenicity, which were considered the most relevant endpoints to assess the hazard related to those substances. The goal here is to identify the data gaps in BPA alternatives toxicology and hence formulate the future directions that will be taken in the frame of the PARC project, which seeks also to enhance chemical risk assessment methodologies using new approach methodologies (NAMs).
2024
Zürich II Statement on Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFASs): Scientific and Regulatory Needs
Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are a class of synthetic organic chemicals of global concern. A group of 36 scientists and regulators from 18 countries held a hybrid workshop in 2022 in Zürich, Switzerland. The workshop, a sequel to a previous Zürich workshop held in 2017, deliberated on progress in the last five years and discussed further needs for cooperative scientific research and regulatory action on PFASs. This review reflects discussion and insights gained during and after this workshop and summarizes key signs of progress in science and policy, ongoing critical issues to be addressed, and possible ways forward. Some key take home messages include: 1) understanding of human health effects continues to develop dramatically, 2) regulatory guidelines continue to drop, 3) better understanding of emissions and contamination levels is needed in more parts of the world, 4) analytical methods, while improving, still only cover around 50 PFASs, and 5) discussions of how to group PFASs for regulation (including subgroupings) have gathered momentum with several jurisdictions proposing restricting a large proportion of PFAS uses. It was concluded that more multi-group exchanges are needed in the future and that there should be a greater diversity of participants at future workshops.
2024
Information on the global production and environmental releases of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is of critical importance for regulating and eliminating these chemical substances of worldwide environmental and health concerns. Here, we conduct an extensive literature review to collect and curate quantitative information on the historical global production and multimedia environmental releases of 25 intentionally produced POPs. Our assembled data indicate that as of 2020, a cumulative total of 31 306 kilotonnes (kt) of the 25 POPs had been synthesized and commercialized worldwide, resulting in cumulative releases of 20 348 kt into the global environment. As of 2020, short-chain chlorinated paraffins were the most produced POP, with a historical global cumulative tonnage amounting to 8795 kt, whereas α-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) had the largest historical global cumulative environmental releases of 6567 kt among these 25 POPs. The 1970s witnessed the peak in the annual global production of the 25 investigated POPs. The United States and Europe used to be the hotspots of environmental releases of the 25 investigated POPs, notably in the 1960s and 1970s. By contrast, global environmental releases occurred primarily in China in the 2000s–2010s. Preliminary efforts are also made to integrate the production volume information with “hazard” attributes (persistence, bioaccumulation, toxicity, and long-range transport potential) in the evaluation of potential environmental impacts of the 25 POPs. The results show that dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are potentially associated with higher environmental impacts than other POPs because they are among the top rankings in both the global cumulative production and hazard indicators. This work for the first time reveals the astonishing magnitudes of POP production and environmental releases in contemporary human history. It also underscores the importance of tonnage information in assessments of POPs, POP candidates, and other chemicals of emerging concern.
2023
The movement towards an animal-free testing approach for risk assessment represents a key paradigm shift in toxicology. Risk assessment of engineered and anthropogenic nanoscale materials (NM) is dependent on reliable hazard characterization, which requires validated test methods and models, and increasingly on mechanistic insights into the mode of action. The properties that make NMs so advantageous for a wide range of commercial and industrial applications also pose a challenge when it comes to safety testing under in vitro and in chemico experimental settings. Their large reactive surface area makes NMs prone to interactions with assay reagents, readout signals, or intermediate steps of many test assays, leading to the potential for biased results and data inconsistencies, collectively referred to as interferences. Therefore, methods and protocols developed and validated for conventional chemicals often require adaptation and checking for reliability in NMs' toxicity assessment. This review presents the collected scientific knowledge on NMs-induced interferences for the most common in vitro toxicity assays and methods related to cytotoxicity, oxidative stress and inflammatory response evaluation. Our analysis of existing scientific literature showed that the challenge of NMs-induced interference was not explicitly addressed in more than 90% of the papers published up to 2014 reporting the safety and toxicity of NMs. In later years, increasing number of studies tackled the interference challenge in toxicity testing of NMs, which initiated exhaustive work on standardization and validation of existing regulatory-relevant in vitro test protocols and guidelines. Due to the specificity of the different NMs and the range of ways they can potentially interfere with in vitro assays, interference and fit-for purpose controls should be included for each NM type and method applied, unless label-free assays are selected. Here, we provide a decision tree to guide researchers on how to design experiments to avoid interferences during in vitro testing by taking appropriate mitigation actions and how to include proper interference controls in their experimental design where complete avoidance is not possible. The application of this decision tree will improve the reliability, comparability and reusability of in vitro toxicity data on engineered NMs or ENMs, increasing the relevance of in silico hazard data for use in risk assessment and in science-based risk governance of NMs. The approach is applicable more broadly also, to advanced materials and to hazard assessment of anthropogenic nanoscale materials such as microplastic and tyre-wear particles.
2024
Validation practices for satellite soil moisture retrievals: What are (the) errors?
This paper presents a community effort to develop good practice guidelines for the validation of global coarse-scale satellite soil moisture products. We provide theoretical background, a review of state-of-the-art methodologies for estimating errors in soil moisture data sets, practical recommendations on data pre-processing and presentation of statistical results, and a recommended validation protocol that is supplemented with an example validation exercise focused on microwave-based surface soil moisture products. We conclude by identifying research gaps that should be addressed in the near future.
2020
This paper presents a comprehensive review of European Union (EU) legislation addressing the safety of chemical substances, and possibilities within each piece of legislation for applying grouping and read-across approaches for the assessment of nanomaterials (NMs). Hence, this
review considers both the overarching regulation of chemical substances under REACH (Regulation (EC) No 1907/2006 on registration, evaluation, authorization, and restriction of chemicals) and CLP (Regulation (EC) No 1272/2008 on classification, labeling and packaging of substances and mixtures) and the sector-specific pieces of legislation for cosmetic, plant protection and biocidal products, and legislation addressing food, novel food, and food contact materials. The relevant supporting documents (e.g. guidance documents) regarding each piece of legislation were identified and reviewed, considering the relevant technical and scientific literature. Prospective regulatory needs for implementing grouping in the assessment of NMs were identi-
fied, and the question whether each particular piece of legislation permits the use of grouping and read-across to address information gaps was answered.
2019
NORMAN guidance on suspect and non-target screening in environmental monitoring
Increasing production and use of chemicals and awareness of their impact on ecosystems and humans has led to large interest for broadening the knowledge on the chemical status of the environment and human health by suspect and non-target screening (NTS). To facilitate effective implementation of NTS in scientific, commercial and governmental laboratories, as well as acceptance by managers, regulators and risk assessors, more harmonisation in NTS is required. To address this, NORMAN Association members involved in NTS activities have prepared this guidance document, based on the current state of knowledge. The document is intended to provide guidance on performing high quality NTS studies and data interpretation while increasing awareness of the promise but also pitfalls and challenges associated with these techniques. Guidance is provided for all steps; from sampling and sample preparation to analysis by chromatography (liquid and gas—LC and GC) coupled via various ionisation techniques to high-resolution tandem mass spectrometry (HRMS/MS), through to data evaluation and reporting in the context of NTS. Although most experience within the NORMAN network still involves water analysis of polar compounds using LC–HRMS/MS, other matrices (sediment, soil, biota, dust, air) and instrumentation (GC, ion mobility) are covered, reflecting the rapid development and extension of the field. Due to the ongoing developments, the different questions addressed with NTS and manifold techniques in use, NORMAN members feel that no standard operation process can be provided at this stage. However, appropriate analytical methods, data processing techniques and databases commonly compiled in NTS workflows are introduced, their limitations are discussed and recommendations for different cases are provided. Proper quality assurance, quantification without reference standards and reporting results with clear confidence of identification assignment complete the guidance together with a glossary of definitions. The NORMAN community greatly supports the sharing of experiences and data via open science and hopes that this guideline supports this effort.
2023
Changes in the genetic material can lead to serious human health defects, as mutations in somatic cells may cause cancer and can contribute to other chronic diseases. Genotoxic events can appear at both the DNA, chromosomal or (during mitosis) whole genome level. The study of mechanisms leading to genotoxicity is crucially important, as well as the detection of potentially genotoxic compounds. We consider the current state of the art and describe here the main endpoints applied in standard human in vitro models as well as new advanced 3D models that are closer to the in vivo situation. We performed a literature review of in vitro studies published from 2000–2020 (August) dedicated to the genotoxicity of nanomaterials (NMs) in new models. Methods suitable for detection of genotoxicity of NMs will be presented with a focus on advances in miniaturization, organ-on-a-chip and high throughput methods.
2020
The role of nature-based solutions for improving environmental quality, health and well-being
Nature-based solutions (NbS) have been positioned and implemented in urban areas as solutions for enhancing urban resilience in the face of a wide range of urban challenges. However, there is a lack of recommendations of optimal NbS and appropriate typologies fitting to different contexts and urban design. The analytical frameworks for NbS implementation and impact evaluation, that integrate NbS into local policy frameworks, socio-economic transition pathways, and spatial planning, remain fragmented. In this article, the NbS concept and its related terminologies are first discussed. Second, the types of NbS implemented in Europe are reviewed and their benefits over time are explored, prior to categorizing them and highlighting the key methods, criteria, and indicators to identify and assess the NbS’s impacts, co-benefits, and trade-offs. The latter involved a review of the websites of 52 projects and some relevant publications funded by EU Research and Innovation programs and other relevant publications. The results show that there is a shared understanding that the NbS concept encompasses benefits of restoration and rehabilitation of ecosystems, carbon neutrality, improved environmental quality, health and well-being, and evidence for such benefits. This study also shows that most NbS-related projects and activities in Europe use hybrid approaches, with NbS typically developed, tested, or implemented to target specific types of environmental–social–economic challenges. The results of this study indicate that NbS as a holistic concept would be beneficial in the context of climate action and sustainable solutions to enhance ecosystem resilience and adaptive capacity within cities. As such, this article provides a snapshot of the role of NbS in urban sustainability development, a guide to the state-of-the-art, and key messages and recommendations of this rapidly emerging and evolving field.
2021
Oceanic long-range transport of organic additives present in plastic products: an overview
Most plastics are made of persistent synthetic polymer matrices that contain chemical additives in significant amounts. Millions of tonnes of plastics are produced every year and a significant amount of this plastic enters the marine environment, either as macro- or microplastics. In this article, an overview is given of the presence of marine plastic debris globally and its potential to reach remote locations in combination with an analysis of the oceanic long-range transport potential of organic additives present in plastic debris. The information gathered shows that leaching of hydrophobic substances from plastic is slow in the ocean, whereas more polar substances leach faster but mostly from the surface layers of the particle. Their high content used in plastic of several percent by weight allows also these chemicals to be transported over long distances without being completely depleted along the way. It is therefore likely that various types of additives reach remote locations with plastic debris. As a consequence, birds or other wildlife that ingest plastic debris are exposed to these substances, as leaching is accelerated in warm-blooded organisms and in hydrophobic fluids such as stomach oil, compared to leaching in water. Our estimates show that approximately 8100–18,900 t of various organic additives are transported with buoyant plastic matrices globally with a significant portion also transported to the Arctic. For many of these chemicals, long-range transport (LRT) by plastic as a carrier is their only means of travelling over long distances without degrading, resulting in plastic debris enabling the LRT of chemicals which otherwise would not reach polar environments with unknown consequences. The transport of organic additives via plastic debris is an additional long-range transport route that should also be considered under the Stockholm Convention.
2021
There is a concern that continued emissions of man-made per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) may cause environmental and human health effects. Now widespread in human populations and in the environment, several PFASs are also present in remote regions of the world, but the environmental transport and fate of PFASs are not well understood. Phasing out the manufacture of some types of PFASs started in 2000 and further regulatory and voluntary actions have followed. The objective of this review is to understand the effects of these actions on global scale PFAS concentrations.
2018
2019
2018
Comparison of observation- and inventory-based methane emissions for eight large global emitters
Monitoring the spatial distribution and trends in surface greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, as well as flux attribution to natural and anthropogenic processes, is essential to track progress under the Paris Agreement and to inform its global stocktake. This study updates earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021, 2023), provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 emissions using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union (EU), and is expanded to include seven additional countries with large anthropogenic and/or natural emissions (the USA, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo)). Our aim is to demonstrate the use of different emission estimates to help improve national GHG emission inventories for a diverse geographical range of stakeholders.
We use updated national GHG inventories (NGHGIs) reported by Annex I parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2023 and the latest available biennial update reports (BURs) reported by non-Annex I parties. Comparing NGHGIs with other approaches highlights that different system boundaries are a key source of divergence. A key system boundary difference is whether anthropogenic and natural fluxes are included and, if they are, how fluxes belonging to these two sources are partitioned.
Over the studied period, the total CH4 emission estimates in the EU, the USA, and Russia show a steady decreasing trend since 1990, while for the non-Annex I emitters analyzed in this study, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and DR Congo, CH4 emissions have generally increased. Quantitatively, in the EU the mean of 2015–2020 anthropogenic UNFCCC NGHGIs (15±1.8 Tg CH4 yr−1) and the mean of the BU CH4 emissions (17.8 (16–19) Tg CH4 yr−1) generally agree on the magnitude, while inversions show higher emission estimates (medians of 21 (19–22) Tg CH4 yr−1 and 24 (22–25) Tg CH4 yr−1 for the three regional and six global inversions, respectively), as they include natural emissions, which for the EU were quantified at 6.6 Tg CH4 yr−1 (Petrescu et al., 2023). Similarly, for the other Annex I parties in this study (the USA and Russia), the gap between the BU anthropogenic and total TD emissions is partly explained by the natural emissions.
For the non-Annex I parties, anthropogenic CH4 estimates from UNFCCC BURs show large differences compared to the other global-inventory-based estimates and even more compared to atmospheric ones. This poses an important potential challenge to monitoring the progress of the global CH4 pledge and the global stocktake. Our analysis provides a useful baseline to prepare for the influx of inventories from non-Annex I parties as regular reporting starts under the enhanced transparency framework of the Paris Agreement.
By systematically comparing the BU and TD methods, this study provides recommendations for more robust comparisons of available data sources and hopes to steadily engage more parties in using observational methods to complement their UNFCCC inventories, as well as considering their natural emissions. With anticipated improvements in atmospheric modeling and observations, as well as modeling of natural fluxes, future development needs to resolve knowledge gaps in the BU and TD approaches and to better quantify the remaining uncertainty. TD methods may emerge as a powerful tool to help improve NGHGIs of CH4 emissions, but further confidence is needed in the comparability and robustness of the estimates.
The referenced datasets related to figures are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12818506 (Petrescu et al., 2024).
2024