Found 2670 publications. Showing page 18 of 267:
Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present-day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling and process-based models) and top-down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land-to-atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches show a sink of CO2 in natural ecosystems (bottom-up: −29 (−709, 455), top-down: −587 (−862, −312) Tg CO2-C yr−1) and sources of CH4 (bottom-up: 38 (22, 53), top-down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH4-C yr−1) and N2O (bottom-up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top-down: 0.09 (−0.19, 0.37) Tg N2O-N yr−1). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP-100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP-20), the region is a net GHG source because CH4 dominates the total forcing. The net CO2 sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO2 emissions as well as CH4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N2O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process-based models and the compilation of process-model ensembles for CH4 and N2O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well-distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques.
2024
Lifestyle diseases significantly contribute to the global health burden, with lifestyle factors playing a crucial role in the development of depression. The COVID-19 pandemic has intensified many determinants of depression. This study aimed to identify lifestyle and demographic factors associated with depression symptoms among Indians during the pandemic, focusing on a sample from Kolkata, India. An online public survey was conducted, gathering data from 1,834 participants (with 1,767 retained post-cleaning) over three months via social media and email. The survey consisted of 44 questions and was distributed anonymously to ensure privacy. Data were analyzed using statistical methods and machine learning, with principal component analysis (PCA) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) employed for feature selection. K-means clustering divided the pre-processed dataset into five clusters, and a support vector machine (SVM) with a linear kernel achieved 96% accuracy in a multi-class classification problem. The Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) algorithm provided local explanations for the SVM model predictions. Additionally, an OWL (web ontology language) ontology facilitated the semantic representation and reasoning of the survey data. The study highlighted a pipeline for collecting, analyzing, and representing data from online public surveys during the pandemic. The identified factors were correlated with depressive symptoms, illustrating the significant influence of lifestyle and demographic variables on mental health. The online survey method proved advantageous for data collection, visualization, and cost-effectiveness while maintaining anonymity and reducing bias. Challenges included reaching the target population, addressing language barriers, ensuring digital literacy, and mitigating dishonest responses and sampling errors. In conclusion, lifestyle and demographic factors significantly impact depression during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study’s methodology offers valuable insights into addressing mental health challenges through scalable online surveys, aiding in the understanding and mitigation of depression risk factors.
2024
Global nitrous oxide budget (1980–2020)
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lived potent greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance that has been accumulating in the atmosphere since the preindustrial period. The mole fraction of atmospheric N2O has increased by nearly 25 % from 270 ppb (parts per billion) in 1750 to 336 ppb in 2022, with the fastest annual growth rate since 1980 of more than 1.3 ppb yr−1 in both 2020 and 2021. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6), the relative contribution of N2O to the total enhanced effective radiative forcing of greenhouse gases was 6.4 % for 1750–2022. As a core component of our global greenhouse gas assessments coordinated by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), our global N2O budget incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks and accounts for the interactions between nitrogen additions and the biogeochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (BU: inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, and process-based land and ocean modeling) and top-down (TD: atmospheric measurement-based inversion) approaches. We provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks in 21 natural and anthropogenic categories in 18 regions between 1980 and 2020. We estimate that total annual anthropogenic N2O emissions have increased 40 % (or 1.9 Tg N yr−1) in the past 4 decades (1980–2020). Direct agricultural emissions in 2020 (3.9 Tg N yr−1, best estimate) represent the large majority of anthropogenic emissions, followed by other direct anthropogenic sources, including fossil fuel and industry, waste and wastewater, and biomass burning (2.1 Tg N yr−1), and indirect anthropogenic sources (1.3 Tg N yr−1) . For the year 2020, our best estimate of total BU emissions for natural and anthropogenic sources was 18.5 (lower–upper bounds: 10.6–27.0) Tg N yr−1, close to our TD estimate of 17.0 (16.6–17.4) Tg N yr−1. For the 2010–2019 period, the annual BU decadal-average emissions for both natural and anthropogenic sources were 18.2 (10.6–25.9) Tg N yr−1 and TD emissions were 17.4 (15.8–19.20) Tg N yr−1. The once top emitter Europe has reduced its emissions by 31 % since the 1980s, while those of emerging economies have grown, making China the top emitter since the 2010s. The observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded projected levels under all scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions. To evaluate mitigation efforts and contribute to the Global Stocktake of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we propose the establishment of a global network for monitoring and modeling N2O from the surface through to the stratosphere. The data presented in this work can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/RQ8P-2Z4R (Tian et al., 2023).
2024
Contribution of fluorescent primary biological aerosol particles to low-level Arctic cloud residuals
Mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) are key players in the Arctic climate system due to their role in modulating solar and terrestrial radiation. Such radiative interactions rely, among other factors, on the ice content of MPCs, which is regulated by the availability of ice-nucleating particles (INPs). While it appears that INPs are associated with the presence of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) in the Arctic, the nuances of the processes and patterns of INPs and their association with clouds and moisture sources have not been resolved. Here, we investigated for a full year the abundance of and variability in fluorescent PBAPs (fPBAPs) within cloud residuals, directly sampled by a multiparameter bioaerosol spectrometer coupled to a ground-based counterflow virtual impactor inlet at the Zeppelin Observatory (475 m a.s.l.) in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. fPBAP concentrations (10−3–10−2 L−1) and contributions to coarse-mode cloud residuals (0.1 to 1 in every 103 particles) were found to be close to those expected for high-temperature INPs. Transmission electron microscopy confirmed the presence of PBAPs, most likely bacteria, within one cloud residual sample. Seasonally, our results reveal an elevated presence of fPBAPs within cloud residuals in summer. Parallel water vapor isotope measurements point towards a link between summer clouds and regionally sourced air masses. Low-level MPCs were predominantly observed at the beginning and end of summer, and one explanation for their presence is the existence of high-temperature INPs. In this study, we present direct observational evidence that fPBAPs may play an important role in determining the phase of low-level Arctic clouds. These findings have potential implications for the future description of sources of ice nuclei given ongoing changes in the hydrological and biogeochemical cycles that will influence the PBAP flux in and towards the Arctic
2024
To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia” (WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day (or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day (or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four (ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day (future) experiment; the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60% (80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day (future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-loss-induced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.
2024
The Greenhouse Gas Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems in East Asia Since 2000
East Asia (China, Japan, Koreas, and Mongolia) has been the world's economic engine over at least the past two decades, exhibiting a rapid increase in fossil fuel emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has expressed the recent ambition to achieve climate neutrality by mid-century. However, the GHG balance of its terrestrial ecosystems remains poorly constrained. Here, we present a synthesis of the three most important long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) budgets over East Asia during the decades of 2000s and 2010s, following a dual constraint approach. We estimate that terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia is close to neutrality of GHGs, with a magnitude of between −46.3 ± 505.9 Tg CO2eq yr−1 (the top-down approach) and −36.1 ± 207.1 Tg CO2eq yr−1 (the bottom-up approach) during 2000–2019. This net GHG sink includes a large land CO2 sink (−1229.3 ± 430.9 Tg CO2 yr−1 based on the top-down approach and −1353.8 ± 158.5 Tg CO2 yr−1 based on the bottom-up approach) being offset by biogenic CH4 and N2O emissions, predominantly coming from the agricultural sectors. Emerging data sources and modeling capacities have helped achieve agreement between the top-down and bottom-up approaches, but sizable uncertainties remain in several flux terms. For example, the reported CO2 flux from land use and land cover change varies from a net source of more than 300 Tg CO2 yr−1 to a net sink of ∼−700 Tg CO2 yr−1. Although terrestrial ecosystems over East Asia is close to GHG neutral currently, curbing agricultural GHG emissions and additional afforestation and forest managements have the potential to transform the terrestrial ecosystems into a net GHG sink, which would help in realizing East Asian countries' ambitions to achieve climate neutrality.
2024
Short-, medium-, and long-chain chlorinated paraffins (CPs) (SCCPs, MCCPs, and LCCPs) and dechloranes are chemicals of emerging concern; however, little is known of their bioaccumulative potential compared to legacy contaminants in marine mammals. Here, we analyzed SCCPs, MCCPs, LCCPs, 7 dechloranes, 4 emerging brominated flame retardants, and 64 legacy contaminants, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), in the blubber of 46 individual marine mammals, representing 10 species, from Norway. Dietary niche was modeled based on stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon in the skin/muscle to assess the contaminant accumulation in relation to diet. SCCPs and dechlorane-602 were strongly positively correlated with legacy contaminants and highest in killer (Orcinus orca) and sperm (Physeter macrocephalus) whales (median SCCPs: 160 ng/g lw; 230 ng/g lw and median dechlorane-602: 3.8 ng/g lw; 2.0 ng/g lw, respectively). In contrast, MCCPs and LCCPs were only weakly correlated to recalcitrant legacy contaminants and were highest in common minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata; median MCCPs: 480 ng/g lw and LCCPs: 240 ng/g lw). The total contaminant load in all species was dominated by PCBs and legacy chlorinated pesticides (63–98%), and MCCPs dominated the total CP load (42–68%, except 11% in the long-finned pilot whale Globicephala melas). Surprisingly, we found no relation between contaminant concentrations and dietary niche, suggesting that other large species differences may be masking effects of diet such as lifespan or biotransformation and elimination capacities. CP and dechlorane concentrations were higher than in other marine mammals from the (sub)Arctic, and they were present in a killer whale neonate, indicating bioaccumulative properties and a potential for maternal transfer in these predominantly unregulated chemicals.
2024
Surface warming in Svalbard may have led to increases in highly active ice-nucleating particles
The roles of Arctic aerosols as ice-nucleating particles remain poorly understood, even though their effects on cloud microphysics are crucial for assessing the climate sensitivity of Arctic mixed-phase clouds and predicting their response to Arctic warming. Here we present a full-year record of ice-nucleating particle concentrations over Svalbard, where surface warming has been anomalously faster than the Arctic average. While the variation of ice-nucleating particles active at around −30 °C was relatively small, those active at higher temperatures (i.e., highly active ice-nucleating particles) tended to increase exponentially with rising surface air temperatures when the surface air temperatures rose above 0 °C and snow/ice-free barren and vegetated areas appeared in Svalbard. The aerosol population relevant to their increase was largely characterized by dust and biological organic materials that likely originated from local/regional terrestrial sources. Our results suggest that highly active ice-nucleating particles could be actively released from Arctic natural sources in response to surface warming.
2024
Widespread Pesticide Distribution in the European Atmosphere Questions their Degradability in Air
Risk assessment of pesticide impacts on remote ecosystems makes use of model-estimated degradation in air. Recent studies suggest these degradation rates to be overestimated, questioning current pesticide regulation. Here, we investigated the concentrations of 76 pesticides in Europe at 29 rural, coastal, mountain, and polar sites during the agricultural application season. Overall, 58 pesticides were observed in the European atmosphere. Low spatial variation of 7 pesticides suggests continental-scale atmospheric dispersal. Based on concentrations in free tropospheric air and at Arctic sites, 22 pesticides were identified to be prone to long-range atmospheric transport, which included 15 substances approved for agricultural use in Europe and 7 banned ones. Comparison between concentrations at remote sites and those found at pesticide source areas suggests long atmospheric lifetimes of atrazine, cyprodinil, spiroxamine, tebuconazole, terbuthylazine, and thiacloprid. In general, our findings suggest that atmospheric transport and persistence of pesticides have been underestimated and that their risk assessment needs to be improved.
2024
2024