Found 10179 publications. Showing page 391 of 408:
We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios, using both the prescribed GHG concentrations as well as the interactive CH4 sources and sinks setup of the model, to quantify the model performance and its sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the ECLIPSE V6b emission database to simulate the future evolution of CH4 sources, sinks, and levels from 2015 to 2050. Results show that the prescribed GHG version underestimates the observed surface CH4 concentrations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1%, with the largest underestimations over the continental emission regions, while the interactive simulation underestimates the observations by 2%, with the biases largest over oceans and smaller over the continents. For the future, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In addition, the interactive simulation calculates slightly larger O3 and OH mixing ratios, in particular over the northern hemisphere, leading to slightly decreased CH4 lifetime in the present day. The CH4 forcing is projected to increase in both scenarios, in particular in the CLE scenario, from 0.53 W m−2 in the present day to 0.73 W m−2 in 2050. In addition, the interactive simulations estimate slightly higher tropospheric O3 forcing compared to prescribed simulations, due to slightly higher O3 mixing ratios simulated by the interactive models. While in the CLE, tropospheric O3 forcing continues to increase, the MFR scenario leads to a decrease in tropospheric O3 forcing, leading to a climate benefit. Our results highlight that in the interactive models, the response of concentrations are not necessarily linear with the changes in emissions as the chemistry is non-linear, and dependent on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. Therefore, it is important to have the CH4 sources and chemical sinks to be represented comprehensively in climate models.
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Tire particles can enter the marine environment e.g. through direct discharge of road runoff, sewage systems or riverine inputs. Their fate in marine waters remains largely unknown, though the deep sea could be a final sink as for other marine litter. To simulate these conditions, we investigated in laboratory-controlled conditions the effects of high-hydrostatic pressure [20 MPa] vs atmospheric pressure [0.1 MPa] on the leaching of 17 organic compounds from cryo-milled tire tread particles (μm sized) and crumb rubber particles (mm sized) into natural seawater. We monitored the abundance of heterotrophic prokaryotes in the leachates over the 14 day exposure period under biotic conditions. Abiotic controls were employed to delineate the influence of prokaryotes on the fate of leached chemicals. Our results showed leaching of dissolved organic carbon and target chemicals under all experimental conditions, with higher concentrations of certain target chemicals under high-hydrostatic pressure conditions (e.g., 1,3-diphenylguanidine [DPG]: max. 703 (20 MPa) vs 119 μg/L (0.1 MPa) from cryo-milled tire tread particles under biotic conditions). Under abiotic conditions leaching was weaker for DPG and other chemicals, with contrasting trends for chemicals prone to biotransformation. In crumb rubber leachates chemical concentrations increased with time, but showed no significant differences between biotic/abiotic or high-hydrostatic/atmospheric pressure conditions. Prokaryotic abundance increased in all samples containing tire particles compared to seawater controls, indicating the use of the rubber and/or leached chemicals as an energy source.
2025
NO2-måling i omgivelsene til Eramet Sauda
På oppdrag fra Eramet Sauda AS har NILU utført målinger av NO2 i omgivelsene til smelteverket i Sauda. Målingene ble utført med NOx-monitor ved Birkelandsvegen nordøst for bedriften. I tillegg ble NO2 målt med passive prøvetakere ved 3 steder i Sauda. Måleperioden varte fra 30. august 2024 til 10. mars 2025. Norske grenseverdier for luftkvalitet (NO2) og luftkvalitetskriterier ble overholdt ved Birkelandsvegen for alle midlingsperioder. Formålet med prosjektet var å vurdere effekten av det nye energigjenvinningsanlegget (bestående av 7 gassmotorer) på NO2 konsentrasjonen. Det ble ikke funnet noen sammenheng mellom vindretning fra sør-sørvest (fra bedriften mot målestasjonen), motordrift og NO2 konsentrasjonene målt ved måleboden.
NILU
2025
Kartlegging av utslipp fra aktiviteter i Oslo Havn
Stiftelsen NILU har utarbeidet en utslippsberegning for aktiviteter på land ved Oslo Havn. Arbeidet omfatter innhenting av aktivitetsdata og utslippsfaktorer fra relevante kilder. Utslippet er beregnet for Dagens situasjon 2023 og framskrevet til 2030 og 2040. For 2040 er det også regnet på effekten av å bytte til bio-basert brensel i fabrikkene.
NILU
2025
Impact of leakage during HFC-125 production on the increase in HCFC-123 and HCFC-124 emissions
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are ozone-depleting substances whose production and consumption have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol in non-Article 5 (mainly developed) countries and are currently being phased out in the rest of the world. Here, we focus on two HCFCs, HCFC-123 and HCFC-124, whose emissions are not decreasing globally in line with their phase-out. We present the first measurement-derived estimates of global HCFC-123 emissions (1993–2023) and updated HCFC-124 emissions for 1978–2023. Around 5 Gg yr−1 of HCFC-123 and 3 Gg yr−1 of HCFC-124 were emitted in 2023. Both HCFC-123 and HCFC-124 are intermediates in the production of HFC-125, a non-ozone-depleting hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) that has replaced ozone-depleting substances in many applications. We show that it is possible that the observed global increase in HCFC-124 emissions could be entirely due to leakage from the production of HFC-125, provided that its leakage rate is around 1 % by mass of HFC-125 production. Global emissions of HCFC-123 have not decreased despite its phase-out for production under the Montreal Protocol, and its use in HFC-125 production may be a contributing factor to this. Emissions of HCFC-124 from western Europe, the USA and East Asia have either fallen or not increased since 2015 and together cannot explain the entire increase in the derived global emissions of HCFC-124. These findings add to the growing evidence that emissions of some ozone-depleting substances are increasing due to leakage and improper destruction during fluorochemical production.
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Towards Net Zero: Evaluating Combined Terrestrial and Marine CDR Approaches
With the global annual mean temperature in 2024 exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, there is an urgent need to investigate pathways for returning the Earth system to lower temperature levels. In addition to stringent emission reduction, we need portfolios of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) techniques to achieve the net-zero emission target. Therefore, it is crucial to evaluate various land and ocean-based CDRs for their effectiveness, environmental risks, and additional benefits.
This study evaluates the CO₂ sequestration potential and efficacy of two prominent CDR methods—Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE)—applied both individually and in combination. Using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2-LM), simulations were designed with ramped-up CDR deployment, targeting 5.2 million km² of bioenergy feedstock for BECCS and a CaO deployment rate of 2.7 Gt/year for OAE by 2100 across the exclusive economic zones of Europe, the United States, and China. The results reveal a nearly additive carbon removal effect of BECCS and OAE. Over the period 2030-2100, OAE sequestered a total of 7 ppm of CO2 with an accumulated 82.3 Gt CaO, achieving a CDR effectiveness of 0.08 ppm per Gt of CaO, while BECCS removes 23 ppm of CO2, with CDR effectiveness of 3.1 ppm per million km² of bioenergy crops. The combined BECCS-OAE simulation offsets anthropogenic CO₂ emissions of 5.4 Gt/year by 2100—equivalent to over 60% of current global transport sector emissions. However, the combined CDR scenario shows negligible effects on the global annual mean temperature, with no clear response detectable against the high internal variability. This underscores the limitations of current CDR approaches in addressing climate warming over the 21st century and emphasizes the need for substantial emissions reductions, supportive policies and diversified CDR strategies to facilitate a return to lower global temperatures.
2025
Modelling Arctic lower-tropospheric ozone: processes controlling seasonal variations
Abstract. Previous assessments on modelling Arctic tropospheric ozone (O3) have shown that most atmospheric models continue to experience difficulties in simulating tropospheric O3 in the Arctic, particularly in capturing the seasonal variations at coastal sites, primarily attributed to the lack of representation of surface bromine chemistry in the Arctic. In this study, two independent chemical transport models (CTMs), DEHM (Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model) and GEM-MACH (Global Environmental Multi-scale – Modelling Air quality and Chemistry), were used to simulate Arctic lower-tropospheric O3 for the year 2015 at considerably higher horizontal resolutions (25 and 15 km, respectively) than the large-scale models in the previous assessments. Both models include bromine chemistry but with different mechanistic representations of bromine sources from snow- and ice-covered polar regions: a blowing-snow bromine source mechanism in DEHM and a snowpack bromine source mechanism in GEM-MACH. Model results were compared with a suite of observations in the Arctic, including hourly observations from surface sites and mobile platforms (buoys and ships) and ozonesonde profiles, to evaluate models' ability to simulate Arctic lower-tropospheric O3, particularly in capturing the seasonal variations and the key processes controlling these variations. Both models are found to behave quite similarly outside the spring period and are able to capture the observed overall surface O3 seasonal cycle and synoptic-scale variabilities, as well as the O3 vertical profiles in the Arctic. GEM-MACH (with the snowpack bromine source mechanism) was able to simulate most of the observed springtime ozone depletion events (ODEs) at the coastal and buoy sites well, while DEHM (with the blowing-snow bromine source mechanism) simulated much fewer ODEs. The present study demonstrates that the springtime O3 depletion process plays a central role in driving the surface O3 seasonal cycle in central Arctic, and that the bromine-mediated ODEs, while occurring most notably within the lowest few hundred metres of air above the Arctic Ocean, can induce a 5 %–7 % of loss in the total pan-Arctic tropospheric O3 burden during springtime. The model simulations also showed an overall enhancement in the pan-Arctic O3 concentration due to northern boreal wildfire emissions in summer 2015; the enhancement is more significant at higher altitudes. Higher O3 excess ratios (ΔO3/ΔCO) found aloft compared to near the surface indicate greater photochemical O3 production efficiency at higher altitudes in fire-impacted air masses. The model simulations further indicated an enhancement in NOy in the Arctic due to wildfires; a large portion of NOy produced from the wildfire emissions is found in the form of PAN that is transported to the Arctic, particularly at higher altitudes, potentially contributing to O3 production there.
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Congener group profiles of MCCPs in environmental samples from Norwegian monitoring programmes, 2025
2025
Using a citizen science approach to assess nanoplastics pollution in remote high-altitude glaciers
Nanoplastics are suspected to pollute every environment on Earth, including very remote areas reached via atmospheric transport. We approached the challenge of measuring environmental nanoplastics by combining high-sensitivity TD-PTR-MS (thermal desorption-proton transfer reaction-mass spectrometry) with trained mountaineers sampling high-altitude glaciers (“citizen science”). Particles < 1 μm were analysed for common polymers (polyethylene, polyethylene terephthalate, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene and tire wear particles), revealing nanoplastic concentrations ranging 2–80 ng mL− 1 at five of 14 sites. The dominant polymer types found in this study were tire wear, polystyrene and polyethylene particles (41%, 28% and 12%, respectively). Lagrangian dispersion modelling was used to reconstruct possible sources of micro- and nanoplastic emissions for those observations, which appear to lie largely to the west of the Alps. France, Spain and Switzerland have the highest contributions to the modelled emissions. The citizen science approach was found to be feasible providing strict quality control measures are in place, and is an effective way to be able to collect data from remote and inaccessible regions across the world.
2025
Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have gained significant global attention due to their extensive industrial use and harmful effects on various organisms. Among these, perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) are well-studied, but their diverse precursors remain challenging to monitor. The Total Oxidizable Precursor (TOP) assay offers a powerful approach to converting these precursors into detectable PFAAs. In this study, the TOP assay was applied to samples from the East Asian-Australian Flyway, a critical migratory route for millions of shorebirds. Samples included shellfish from China's coastal mudflats, key stopover sites for these birds, and blood and liver samples from shorebirds overwintering in Australia. The results showed a substantial increase in perfluorocarboxylic acids (PFCAs) across all sample types following the TOP assay, with the most significant increases in shorebird livers (Sum PFCAs increased by 18,156 %). Intriguingly, the assay also revealed unexpected increases in perfluorosulfonic acids (PFSAs), suggesting the presence of unidentified precursors. These findings highlight the need for further research into these unknown precursors, their sources, and their ecological impacts on shorebirds, other wildlife, and potential human exposure. This study also provides crucial insights into the TOP assay’s strengths and limitations in studying PFAS precursor dynamics in biological matrices.
2025
Recommendation technologies are widespread in streaming services, e-commerce, social media, news, and content management. Besides recommendation generation, its presentation is also important. Most research and development focus on the technical aspects of recommendation generation; therefore, a gap exists between recommendation generation and its effective presentation and user interaction. This study focuses on how personalized recommendations can be presented and interacted with in a music recommendation system using interactive visual interfaces. Interactive interface modeling with User-Centered Design (UCD) in a recommendation system is essential for creating a user-friendly, engaging, and personalized experience. By involving users in the recommendation process and considering their feedback, the system can deliver more relevant content, foster user trust, and improve overall user satisfaction and engagement. In this study, the visual interface design and development of a personalized music recommendation prototype (MusicReco) are presented using an iterative UCD approach, involving twenty end-users, one researcher, three academic professionals, and four experts. As the study is more inclined toward the recommendation presentation and visual modeling, we used a standard content-based filtering algorithm on the publicly available Spotify dataset for music recommendation generation. End-users helped to mature the MusicReco prototype to a basic working version through continuous feedback and design inputs on their needs, context, preferences, personalization, and effective visualization. Moreover, MusicReco captures the idea of mood-based tailored recommendations to encourage end-users. Overall, this study demonstrates how UCD can enhance the presentation and interaction of mood-based music recommendations, effectively engaging users with advancements in recommendation algorithms as a future focus.
2025