Found 158 publications. Showing page 7 of 7:
Emission ensemble approach to improve the development of multi-scale emission inventories
Many studies have shown that emission inventories are one of the inputs with the most critical influences on the results of air quality modelling. Comparing emission inventories among themselves is, therefore, essential to build confidence in emission estimates. In this work, we extend the approach of Thunis et al. (2022) to compare emission inventories by building a benchmark that serves as a reference for comparisons. This benchmark is an ensemble that is based on three state-of-the-art EU-wide inventories: CAMS-REG, EMEP and EDGAR. The ensemble-based methodology screens differences between inventories and the ensemble. It excludes differences that are not relevant and identifies among the remaining ones those that need special attention. We applied the ensemble-based screening to both an EU-wide and a local (Poland) inventory.
The EU-wide analysis highlighted a large number of inconsistencies. While the origin of some differences between EDGAR and the ensemble can be identified, their magnitude remains to be explained. These differences mostly occur for SO2 (sulfur oxides), PM (particulate matter) and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic carbon) for the industrial and residential sectors and reach a factor of 10 in some instances. Spatial inconsistencies mostly occur for the industry and other sectors.
At the local scale, inconsistencies relate mostly to differences in country sectorial shares that result from different sectors/activities being accounted for in the two types of inventories. This is explained by the fact that some emission sources are omitted in the local inventory due to a lack of appropriate geographically allocated activity data. We identified sectors and pollutants for which discussion between local and EU-wide emission compilers would be needed in order to reduce the magnitude of the observed differences (e.g. in the residential and industrial sectors).
The ensemble-based screening proved to be a useful approach to spot inconsistencies by reducing the number of necessary inventory comparisons. With the progressive resolution of inconsistencies and associated inventory improvements, the ensemble will improve. In this sense, we see the ensemble as a useful tool to motivate the community around a single common benchmark and monitor progress towards the improvement of regionally and locally developed emission inventories.
2024
The Pan-Eurasian Experiment Modelling Platform (PEEX-MP) is one of the key blocks of the PEEX Research Programme. The PEEX MP has more than 30 models and is directed towards seamless environmental prediction. The main focus area is the Arctic-boreal regions and China. The models used in PEEX-MP cover several main components of the Earth’s system, such as the atmosphere, hydrosphere, pedosphere and biosphere, and resolve the physical-chemical-biological processes at different spatial and temporal scales and resolutions. This paper introduces and discusses PEEX MP multi-scale modelling concept for the Earth system, online integrated, forward/inverse, and socioeconomical modelling, and other approaches with a particular focus on applications in the PEEX geographical domain. The employed high-performance computing facilities, capabilities, and PEEX dataflow for modelling results are described. Several virtual research platforms (PEEX-View, Virtual Research Environment, Web-based Atlas) for handling PEEX modelling and observational results are introduced. The overall approach allows us to understand better physical-chemical-biological processes, Earth’s system interactions and feedbacks and to provide valuable information for assessment studies on evaluating risks, impact, consequences, etc. for population, environment and climate in the PEEX domain. This work was also one of the last projects of Prof. Sergej Zilitinkevich, who passed away on 15 February 2021. Since the finalization took time, the paper was actually submitted in 2023 and we could not argue that the final paper text was agreed with him.
Taylor & Francis
2024
Understanding individual heat exposure through interdisciplinary research on thermoception
Extreme heat events are more frequent and more intense globally due to climate change. The urban environment is an additional factor enhancing the effects of heat. Adults above 65 years old are especially at risk due to their poorer health, physiology and socio-economic situation. Yet, there is limited knowledge about their experiences of summer heat, their actual heat exposure and how they negotiate their thermal comfort through different adaptation practices. In conventional research on heat exposure and thermal comfort, very little attention is given to individual behaviour and subjective experiences. To understand how older adults feel the heat in the city we study their thermoception, which we conceptualise as an embodied knowledge about bodily sensations, thermal environments and adjustments to heat. This article stems from interdisciplinary research conducted in Warsaw and Madrid in the summers of 2021–2022. We combine and juxtapose data from ethnographic research and from physical measurements of temperature gathered in people’s homes, to show on a microscale how we can study and understand the diversity in individual heat exposure more holistically. We demonstrate that to understand the consequences of heat for vulnerable populations it is crucial to study thermoception, the subjective experiences of heat, in addition to analysing their thermal environments. With the use of a unique methodology, this article shows how similar weather conditions are experienced differently by people from the same cities, depending on the materiality of their dwellings, availability of cooling devices, as well as everyday habits and their individual bodies. We discuss the social, material and temporal adjustments participants made to deal with heat, to showcase their agency in affecting their individual heat exposure. The article emphasises the role of social sciences and qualitative methods in research on individual heat exposure and argues for the co-production of knowledge on the topic.
Palgrave Macmillan
2024
Mapping Plastic and Plastic Additive Cycles in Coastal Countries: A Norwegian Case Study
The growing environmental consequences caused by plastic pollution highlight the need for a better understanding of plastic polymer cycles and their associated additives. We present a novel, comprehensive top-down method using inflow-driven dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis (DPMFA) to map the plastic cycle in coastal countries. For the first time, we covered the progressive leaching of microplastics to the environment during the use phase of products and modeled the presence of 232 plastic additives. We applied this methodology to Norway and proposed initial release pathways to different environmental compartments. 758 kt of plastics distributed among 13 different polymers was introduced to the Norwegian economy in 2020, 4.4 Mt was present in in-use stocks, and 632 kt was wasted, of which 15.2 kt (2.4%) was released to the environment with a similar share of macro- and microplastics and 4.8 kt ended up in the ocean. Our study shows tire wear rubber as a highly pollutive microplastic source, while most macroplastics originated from consumer packaging with LDPE, PP, and PET as dominant polymers. Additionally, 75 kt of plastic additives was potentially released to the environment alongside these polymers. We emphasize that upstream measures, such as consumption reduction and changes in product design, would result in the most positive impact for limiting plastic pollution.
2024
There are sparse opportunities for direct measurement of upper stratospheric winds, yet improving their representation in subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models can have significant benefits. There is solid evidence from previous research that global atmospheric infrasound waves are sensitive to stratospheric dynamics. However, there is a lack of results providing a direct mapping between infrasound recordings and polar-cap upper stratospheric winds. The global International Monitoring System (IMS), which monitors compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, includes ground-based stations that can be used to characterize the infrasound soundscape continuously. In this study, multi-station IMS infrasound data were utilized along with a machine-learning supported stochastic model, Delay-SDE-net, to demonstrate how a near-real-time estimate of the polar-cap averaged zonal wind at 1-hPa pressure level can be found from infrasound data. The infrasound was filtered to a temporal low-frequency regime dominated by microbaroms, which are ambient-noise infrasonic waves continuously radiated into the atmosphere from nonlinear interaction between counter-propagating ocean surface waves. Delay-SDE-net was trained on 5 years (2014–2018) of infrasound data from three stations and the ERA5 reanalysis 1-hPa polar-cap averaged zonal wind. Using infrasound in 2019–2020 for validation, we demonstrate a prediction of the polar-cap averaged zonal wind, with an error standard deviation of around 12 m·s compared with ERA5. These findings highlight the potential of using infrasound data for near-real-time measurements of upper stratospheric dynamics. A long-term goal is to improve high-top atmospheric model accuracy, which can have significant implications for weather and climate prediction.
John Wiley & Sons
2024
Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were analysed in a high number of terrestrial samples of soil, earthworm, bird eggs and liver from red fox and brown rat in an urban area in Norway from 2013 to 2020. PFOS and the long chain PFCAs were the most dominating compounds in all samples, proving their ubiquitous distribution. Other less studied compounds such as 6:2 FTS were first and foremost detected in earthworm. 8:2 FTS was found in many samples of fieldfare egg, sparrowhawk egg and earthworm, where the eggs had highest concentrations. Highest concentrations for both 6:2 FTS and 8:2 FTS were detected at present and former industry areas. FOSA was detected in many samples of the species with highest concentrations in red fox liver and brown rat liver of 3.3 and 5.5 ng/g ww.
PFAS concentrations from the urban area were significantly higher than from background areas indicating that some of the species can be suitable as markers for PFAS emissions in an urban environment. Fieldfare eggs had surprisingly high concentrations of PFOS and PFCA concentrations from areas known to be or have been influenced by industry. Biota-soil-accumulation factor and magnification calculations indicate accumulation and magnification potential for several PFAS.
Earthworm and fieldfare egg had average concentrations above the Canadian and European thresholds in diet for avian wildlife and predators. For earthworms, 18 % of the samples exceeded the European threshold (33 ng/g ww) of PFOS in prey for predators, and for fieldfare eggs, 35 % of the samples were above the same threshold. None of the soil samples exceeded a proposed PNEC of PFOS for soil living organisms of 373 ng/g dw.
Elsevier
2024
Microfibers (MF) are one of the major classes of microplastic found in the marine environment on a global scale. Very little is known about how they move and distribute from point sources such as wastewater effluents into the ocean. We chose Adventfjorden near the settlement of Longyearbyen on the Arctic Svalbard archipelago as a case study to investigate how microfibers emitted with untreated wastewater will distribute in the fjord, both on a spatial and temporal scale. Fiber abundance in the effluent was estimated from wastewater samples taken during two one-week periods in June and September 2017. Large emissions of MFs were detected, similar in scale to a modern WWTP serving 1.3 million people and providing evidence of the importance of untreated wastewater from small settlements as major local sources for MF emissions in the Arctic. Fiber movement and distribution in the fjord mapped using an online-coupled hydrodynamic-drift model (FVCOM-FABM). For parameterizing a wider spectrum of fibers from synthetic to wool, four different density classes of MFs, i.e., buoyant, neutral, sinking, and fast sinking fibers are introduced to the modeling framework. The results clearly show that fiber class has a large impact on the fiber distributions. Light fibers remained in the surface layers and left the fjord quickly with outgoing currents, while heavy fibers mostly sank to the bottom and deposited in the inner parts of the fjord and along the northern shore. A number of accumulation sites were identified within the fjord. The southern shore, in contrast, was much less affected, with low fiber concentrations throughout the modeling period. Fiber distributions were then compared with published pelagic and benthic fauna distributions in different seasons at selected stations around the fjord. The ratios of fibers to organisms showed a very wide range, indicating hot spots of encounter risk for pelagic and benthic biota. This approach, in combination with in-situ ground-truthing, can be instrumental in understanding microplastic pathways and fate in fjord systems and coastal areas and help authorities develop monitoring and mitigation strategies for microfiber and microplastic pollution in their local waters.
Frontiers Media S.A.
2021
There is a need for baseline information about how much plastics are ingested by wildlife and potential negative consequences thereof. We analysed the frequency of occurrence (FO) of plastics >1 mm in the stomachs of five pursuit-diving seabird species collected opportunistically.
Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) found emaciated on beaches in SW Norway had the highest FO of plastics (58.8 %), followed by emaciated common guillemots (Uria aalge; 9.1 %) also found beached in either SW or SE Norway. No plastics were detected in razorbills (Alca torda), great cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo), and European shags (Gulosus aristotelis) taken as bycatch in northern Norway. This is the first study to report on plastic ingestion of these five species in northern Europe, and it highlights both the usefulness and limitations of opportunistic sampling. Small sample sizes, as well as an unbalanced sample design, complicated the interpretation of the results.
Elsevier
2024
Mapping potential conflicts between global agriculture and terrestrial conservation
Demand for food products, often from international trade, has brought agricultural land use into direct competition with biodiversity. Where these potential conflicts occur and which consumers are responsible is poorly understood. By combining conservation priority (CP) maps with agricultural trade data, we estimate current potential conservation risk hotspots driven by 197 countries across 48 agricultural products. Globally, a third of agricultural production occurs in sites of high CP (CP > 0.75, max = 1.0). While cattle, maize, rice, and soybean pose the greatest threat to very high-CP sites, other low-conservation risk products (e.g., sugar beet, pearl millet, and sunflower) currently are less likely to be grown in sites of agriculture–conservation conflict. Our analysis suggests that a commodity can cause dissimilar conservation threats in different production regions. Accordingly, some of the conservation risks posed by different countries depend on their demand and sourcing patterns of agricultural commodities. Our spatial analyses identify potential hotspots of competition between agriculture and high-conservation value sites (i.e., 0.5° resolution, or ~367 to 3,077km2, grid cells containing both agriculture and high-biodiversity priority habitat), thereby providing additional information that could help prioritize conservation activities and safeguard biodiversity in individual countries and globally. A web-based GIS tool at https://agriculture.spatialfootprint.com/biodiversity/ systematically visualizes the results of our analyses.
2023
Procellariiform seabirds like northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) are prone to ingest and accumulate floating plastic pieces. In the North Sea region, there is a long tradition to use beached fulmars as biomonitors for marine plastic pollution. Monitoring data revealed consistently lower plastic burdens in adult fulmars compared to younger age classes. Those findings were hypothesized to partly result from parental transfer of plastic to chicks. However, no prior study has examined this mechanism in fulmars by comparing plastic burdens in fledglings and older fulmars shortly after the chick-rearing period. Therefore, we investigated plastic ingestion in 39 fulmars from Kongsfjorden (Svalbard), including 21 fledglings and 18 older fulmars (adults/older immatures). We found that fledglings (50−60 days old) had significantly more plastic than older fulmars. While plastic was found in all fledglings, two older fulmars contained no and several older individuals barely any plastic. These findings supported that fulmar chicks from Svalbard get fed high quantities of plastic by their parents. Adverse effects of plastic on fulmars were indicated by one fragment that perforated the stomach and possibly one thread perforating the intestine. Negative correlations between plastic mass and body fat in fledglings and older fulmars were not significant.
2023
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
High-Resolution Emissions from Wood Burning in Norway—The Effect of Cabin Emissions
Emissions from wood burning for heating in secondary homes or cabins is an important part in the development of high-resolution emissions in specific areas. Norway is used as case study as 20% of the national wood consumption for heating occurs in cabins. Our study first shows a method to estimate emissions from cabins based on traffic data to derive cabin occupancy, which combined with heating need allows for the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions. The combination of residential (RWC) and cabin wood combustion (CWC) emissions shows large spatial and temporal differences, and a temporally “cabin population” can in areas be orders of magnitude larger than the registered population. While RWC emissions have been steadily reduced, CWC have kept relatively constant or even increased, which results in an increase in the cabin share to total heating emissions up to 25–35%. When comparing with regional emission inventories, our study shows that the gradient between rural and urban areas is not well-represented in regional inventories, which resembles a population-based distribution and does not allocate emissions in cabin municipalities. CWC emissions may become an increasing environmental concern as higher densification trends in mountain areas are observed.
MDPI
2022
State of the Climate in 2021: 5. The Arctic
American Meteorological Society
2022
We present here emissions estimated from a newly developed emission model for residential wood combustion (RWC) at high spatial and temporal resolution, which we name the MetVed model. The model estimates hourly emissions resolved on a 250 m grid resolution for several compounds, including particulate matter (PM), black carbon (BC) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Norway for a 12-year period. The model uses novel input data and calculation methods that combine databases built with an unprecedented high level of detail and near-national coverage. The model establishes wood burning potential at the grid based on the dependencies between variables that influence emissions: i.e. outdoor temperature, number of and type and size of dwellings, type of available heating technologies, distribution of wood-based heating installations and their associated emission factors. RWC activity with a 1 h temporal profile was produced by combining heating degree day and hourly and weekday activity profiles reported by wood consumers in official statistics. This approach results in an improved characterisation of the spatio-temporal distribution of wood use, and subsequently of emissions, required for urban air quality assessments. Whereas most variables are calculated based on bottom-up approaches on a 250 m spatial grid, the MetVed model is set up to use official wood consumption at the county level and then distributes consumption to individual grids proportional to the physical traits of the residences within it. MetVed combines consumption with official emission factors that makes the emissions also upward scalable from the 250 m grid to the national level.
The MetVed spatial distribution obtained was compared at the urban scale to other existing emissions at the same scale. The annual urban emissions, developed according to different spatial proxies, were found to have differences up to an order of magnitude. The MetVed total annual PM2.5 emissions in the urban domains compare well to emissions adjusted based on concentration measurements. In addition, hourly PM2.5 concentrations estimated by an Eulerian dispersion model using MetVed emissions were compared to measurements at air quality stations. Both hourly daily profiles and the seasonality of PM2.5 show a slight overestimation of PM2.5 levels. However, a comparison with black carbon from biomass burning and benzo(a)pyrene measurements indicates higher emissions during winter than that obtained by MetVed. The accuracy of urban emissions from RWC relies on the accuracy of the wood consumption (activity data), emission factors and the spatio-temporal distribution. While there are still knowledge gaps regarding emissions, MetVed represents a vast improvement in the spatial and temporal distribution of RWC.
2019