Publications

Revised dispersion calculations of dust emissions from a refinement process at Eramet Norway AS in Sauda. NILU OR

Haugsbakk, I.; Tønnesen, D.

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

McCarty, Jessica L.; Aalto, Juha; Paunu, Ville-Veikko; Arnold, Steve R.; Eckhardt, Sabine; Klimont, Zbigniew; Fain, Justin; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Venäläinen, Ari; Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Soja, Amber J.; Huang, Lin; Wilson, Simon

In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70∘ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2.5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65∘ N are larger than emissions from the anthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60∘ N, with 56 % of black carbon emissions above 65∘ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

Review on the methodology supporting the health impact assessment by the European Environment Agency

Soares, Joana; Gsella, Artur; Horálek, Jan; Guerreiro, Cristina; Ortiz, Alberto González

Review of the EU bioeconomy strategy and its action plan. Expert group report.

Newton, A.; Lescai, F.; Carrez, D.; Carus, M.; Griffon, M.; Jilkova, J.; Juhász, A.; Lange, L.; Mavsar, R.; Pursula, T.; Varela Ortega, C.

Review of report on PM equivalence testing in Poland. NILU OR

Marsteen, L.; Guerreiro, C.

Review of Observation Capacities and Data Availability for Black Carbon in the Arctic Region: EU Action on Black Carbon in the Arctic – Technical Report 1

Tørseth, Kjetil; Andrews, Elisabeth; Asmi, Eija; Eleftheriadis, Kostas; Fiebig, Markus; Herber, Andreas; Huang, Lin; Kylling, Arve; Lupi, Angelo; Massling, Andreas; Mazzola, Mauro; Nøjgaard, Jacob Klenø; Popovicheva, Olga; Schichtel, Bret; Schmale, Julia; Sharma, Sangeeta; Skov, Henrik; Stebel, Kerstin; Vasel, Brian; Vitale, Vito; Whaley, Cynthia; Yttri, Karl Espen; Zanatta, Marco

This report presents the results of the European Union Action
on Black Carbon in the Arctic (EUA-BCA) initiative’s review of
observation capacities and data availability for black carbon in the Arctic region.

EUA-BCA/AMAP

Review of methods that can be used in the assessment of atmospheric deposition

Aas, Wenche; Soares, Joana; Hamer, Paul David; Schneider, Philipp; Svendby, Tove Marit; Guerreiro, Cristina

There are three main approaches for estimating the atmospheric deposition: 1) From measurements of air and precipitation chemistry combined with statistical interpolation, 2) Chemical transport models, 3) Combined observations and atmospheric model calculations. This report reviews these different approaches and come with some general recommendations on the different strategies and the way forward for Poland.

The report was made for the project "Strengthening of atmospheric deposition assessment in Poland based on Norwegian experience" under the program "Environment, Energy and Climate Change", financed by the European Economic Area Financial Mechanism 2014-2021".

NILU

Review of assessment of existing CAS/DAS, review of technical specification for CAS/DAS. NILU OR

Marsteen, L.; Ødegård, R.; Bøhler, T.

NILU and GIOS, Poland, are implementing the project "Strengthening the air quality assessment system in Poland, based on Norwegian experience" as part of the programme "Improving Environmental Monitoring and Inspection" within the framework of the European Economic Area 2009-2014.

This report is a NILU review of two assessment reports covering Iséo and CSMS data management systems in use in Poland and the draft technical tender for purchasing a new data management system to replace the Iséo systems.

GIOS has, as part of the preparation for tendering, assessed the existing systems in the 16 VIEPs and compiled their findings in two reports. The VIEPs currently have 3 different systems. In the draft tender GIOS asks for a replacement of the existing XR systems from Iséo used in 8 VIEPs.

NILU has reviewed the documents provided by GIOS. However, due to the limited time available for this review, NILU has not carried out any technical testing of the current operational acquisition system, for verification of the documents claim's.

The assessment reports give a good overview of the DAS and CAS systems used in the VIEPs regarding both technical issues and user experiences. The information in the reports feeds into report no. 3 on tender specifications.

Reviderte beregninger av luftkvalitet ved Bjørnheimveien 26

Weydahl, Torleif; Tønnesen, Dag

NILU har blitt engasjert av Prem Partners II A/S for å vurdere utbredelse av luftsoner for dagens situasjon og en framtidig situasjon med foreslått boligblokk i Bjørnheimveien 26. Det er anvendt en Gaussisk spredningsmodell for linjekilder (Hiway-2). Når det tas hensyn til lokal topografi ved det aktuelle området, viser beregningene at den nye bygningen i hovedsak faller utenfor rød luftsone på bakkenivå, med unntak av det sørøstre hjørnet av bygningen som beregningene indikerer at ligger innenfor. Videre viser beregningene at skjermingseffekten for eksisterende bebyggelse av en ny bygning er marginal. Rapporten er en revisjon av NILU-rapport 15/2021.

NILU

Revidert tiltaksutredning for lokal luftkvalitet i Tromsø

Weydahl, Torleif; Markelj, Miha; Walker, Sam-Erik; Lysø, Tonje

Stiftelsen NILU har, i samarbeid med Transportøkonomisk institutt (TØI), utarbeidet en revidert tiltaksutredning for lokal luftkvalitet i Tromsø kommune for perioden 2025 til 2030. Arbeidet omfatter en kartlegging av luftkvaliteten basert på trafikk-, utslipps- og spredningsberegninger for PM10, PM2,5 og NO2 for Dagens situasjon 2023, Referansesituasjonen 2030 og 2030 med tiltak. Det er beregnet risiko for overskridelse av dagens grenseverdier i forurensningsforskriften og for grenseverdier i nytt EU-direktiv som ennå ikke er tatt inn i norsk lovgiving.

NILU

Revidert tiltaksutredning for lokal luftkvalitet i Stavanger

Weydahl, Torleif; Høiskar, Britt Ann Kåstad; Johnsrud, Mona; Ranheim, Patrick

Tiltaksutredningen for lokal luftkvalitet i Stavanger, med handlingsplan og tiltak, skal bidra til at forurensningsnivået holder seg innenfor kravene i forurensningsforskriften. I tillegg belyser denne utredningen tiltak som vil være med på å redusere nivåene sammenlignet med helsemyndighetenes anbefaling til luftkvalitet. Tiltaksutredningen omfatter en kartlegging av luftkvaliteten i Stavanger ved trafikkberegninger og utslipps- og spredningsberegninger for PM10, PM2,5 og NO2 for Dagens situasjon 2018 og Framtidig situasjon 2024 med og uten tiltak. Basert på resultatene fra beregningene og i samarbeid med oppdragsgiver, er det foreslått en revidert handlings- og beredskapsplan som skal behandles politisk.

NILU

Revidert tiltaksutredning for lokal luftkvalitet i Drammen

Weydahl, Torleif; Markelj, Miha; Høyem, Harald

NILU – Norsk institutt for luftforskning har, i samarbeid med Asplan Viak AS, utarbeidet en tiltaksutredning for lokal luftkvalitet i Drammen kommune. Tiltaksutredningen omfatter en kartlegging av luftkvaliteten i Drammen ved trafikkberegninger og utslipps- og spredningsberegninger for svevestøv (PM10 og PM2,5) for Dagens situasjon 2021 og Referansesituasjonen 2030 og for 2030 med tiltak rettet mot svevestøv. Basert på resultatene fra beregningene og i samarbeid med oppdragsgiver, styringsgruppe og referansegruppe, er det foreslått en revidert handlingsplan som skal behandles politisk.

NILU

Revealing the significant acceleration of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions in eastern Asia through long-term atmospheric observations

Choi, Haklim; Redington, Alison L.; Park, Hyeri; Kim, Jooil; Thompson, Rona Louise; Mühle, Jens; Salameh, Peter K.; Harth, Christina M.; Weiss, Ray F.; Manning, Alistair J.; Park, Sunyoung

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are powerful anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) with high global-warming potentials (GWPs). They have been widely used as refrigerants, insulation foam-blowing agents, aerosol propellants, and fire suppression agents. Since the mid-1990s, emissions of HFCs have been increasing rapidly as they are used in many applications to replace ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) whose consumption and production have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol (MP). Due to the high GWP of HFCs, the Kigali Amendment to the MP requires the phasedown of production and consumption of HFCs to gradually achieve an 80 %–85 % reduction by 2047, starting in 2019 for non-Article 5 (developed) countries with a 10 % reduction against each defined baseline and later schedules for Article 5 (developing) countries. In this study, we have examined long-term high-precision measurements of atmospheric abundances of five major HFCs (HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-32, HFC-125, and HFC-152a) at Gosan station, Jeju Island, South Korea, from 2008 to 2020. Background abundances of HFCs gradually increased, and the inflow of polluted air masses with elevated abundances from surrounding source regions were detected over the entire period. From these pollution events, we inferred regional and country-specific HFC emission estimates using two independent Lagrangian particle dispersion models and Bayesian inversion frameworks (FLEXPART-FLEXINVERT+ and NAME-InTEM). The spatial distribution of the derived “top-down” (measurement based) emissions for all HFCs shows large fluxes from megacities and industrial areas in the region. Our most important finding is that HFC emissions in eastern China and Japan have sharply increased from 2016 to 2018. The contribution of East Asian HFC emissions to the global total increased from 9 % (2008–2014) to 13 % (2016–2020). In particular, HFC emissions in Japan (Annex I country) rose rapidly from 2016 onward, with accumulated total inferred HFC emissions being ∼ 114 Gg yr−1, which is ∼ 76 Gg yr−1 higher for 2016–2020 than the “bottom-up” (i.e., based on activity data and emission factors) emissions of ∼ 38 Gg yr−1 reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is likely related to the increase in domestic demand in Japan for refrigerants and air-conditioning-system-related products and incomplete accounting. A downward trend of HFC emissions that started in 2019 reflects the effectiveness of the F-gas policy in Japan. Eastern China and South Korea, though not obligated to report to the UNFCCC, voluntarily reported emissions, which also show differences between top-down and bottom-up emission estimates, demonstrating the need for atmospheric measurements, comprehensive data analysis, and accurate reporting for precise emission management. Further, the proportional contribution of each country's CO2-equivalent HFC emissions has changed over time, with HFC-134a decreasing and HFC-125 increasing. This demonstrates the transition in the predominant HFC substances contributing to global warming in each country.